Some time ago, to participate in xinjiang peak BBS and real estate enjoysmart innovation summit, made a longer speech, after the meeting the reporter made up a long speech as follows, give everybody a reference. Reporter: it is said that real estate has "winter", do you think this "winter" how long can have how long? YangGongXu: real estate industry the winter, this is most professionals and real estate enterprise consistent feeling. China vanke, real estate mogul also made it clear that turn into "the winter model". If so, the housing adjustment will last, and how long the winter? Decided to have a short-term market to three factors: the policy, funds, stock. First, a real estate policy is still tight. The central political bureau meeting for next year's work has pitch, puts forward to keep the continuity and consistency of macroeconomic policy. The meeting also stressed that insist on real estate control policies don't shake, promote the rational regression house prices, and promote the healthy development of the real estate market. This expression, let a lot of professionals can't stand, actually, since November, premier wen's two comment,NFL Hats has the certain political tone buried the set. According to the diameter, next year policy is big change, although not discharge drop in the second half is loose. At least, 46 limit buy city by the end of this year is unlikely to buy out of restrictions. Second, from the analysis on the financing side, eased monetary policy, but the government insists the credit is not to let go of real estate. The next few months, in addition to the first suite loans exist outside the possibility of loose, real estate credit environment won't improved significantly. Development enterprise capital to continue tightens, the national real estate development enterprise capital source growth continued to slide, enterprise leverage substantially more than the average level in recent years, the project money collecting sales still bad, depreciate sales promotion of pressure also is more and more big. Again, enterprise's stock levels increase, especially commercially available source inventory of unsold homes is very large. By the end of November, the national 4 a city and four typical second city new commodity residential inventories were up to 45.95 million square meters, compared with the same period last year, new 12.76 million square meters inventories, up 38.44%, a part of the city housing inventories have a high status. The domestic market of a winter is in October 2008 to July 2009, the national real estate development industry comprehensive confidence in the winter for 10 months. Due to the possible 2008 in the fourth quarter and 2009 years that help city dynamics, so the duration of the winter is expected to more than 10 months. If 2011, real estate industry temperature were lower than last year, so next year than this year will also be more low. The real estate sector and the enterprise must have enough preparation. Under the nest, Ann finishing have eggs? Urumqi also will be big environment influence, just some influence is relatively small. Reporter: the industry said that the housing market will continue to deep adjusted, your personal judgment is how to develop? YangGongXu: notable is, as time goes on, house prices rose to by going, and then to fall in the October inflection point, official comments started to mention "this month to also begin to loose", "has made certain result". Logic is complex, with the effect of control property prices is more and more obvious, and the high pressure control policy stance also down a little bit. We need to focus on is, when will the process "by quantitative change to the qualitative change". In the short term, the house price declines and continuous time reach, the central control policies will be eased (some local governments will relax regulation time earlier). The secondary variables to relax policy is economic downturn degree. At present the economic stability have to fall, will see down next year, if severe, have the potential to become loose in advance. In the long run, adjustment and control policies relax, basically see the other two factors: housing guarantee basic in place, namely can cover 20%-30% of urban residents, basic realize central economic work conference last year proposed "building security room system and commodity house system"; Two is to suppress the pent-up demand of speculative investment the long-term mechanism of basic establishment, such as real estate information nationwide network, house property duty national promotion, etc. At the end of the third quarter, I had a judge "policy bottom" already appear, but to go out of "bottom", but also see house price "face". The main variables to relax policy has two: house prices and the economy. One of the main variable is the range of the falling house prices and the time duration. This no precise coordinates. Policy strictly, capital dries, stock, high, lead to more and more room enterprises promotion shipment, prices will keep falling more months. However, as the policy loose, cut the price of entry, demand, expected prices will appear at the end of next year, and cast out the climb, the "three steps". My personal judgment, the next six months, the market will continue to the bottom of the agent. Although not eliminate to be able to have the local government secretly relax, but the real estate policy is significant to relax. So, two factors will continue to oppression market. One is the enterprise capital chain raise an alarm, external financing environment still bad, credit directional loose spring rain fell less than room stand head. 2 it is the inventory of pressure, since 2011, new commodity residential deposit pin than already eight months, are on the rise. I think, in 2012 the national property market of each index than 2011 sent many, but still has turnaround. From the recently published dweller buys a house intend to data to see, the housing downturn will still keep the situation, is expected to the ground in the first half of next year, the second half would have picked trend, compared to 2008 in the fall surge, show a wide flat bottom of the letter U. Personally, I think the urumqi property market will also in third quarter next year end adjustment, gradually out of the bottom. Reporter: for some of the person that buy a house expected level of house prices fall, how do you see? YangGongXu: it is well known that house prices need to fall, but fell back to what level is not "a reasonable level"? This is a HuTuZhang. In the long run, let the house price and residents pay ability to adapt, can count as the ultimate goal, which is a so-called "the housing price to income than" concept. The European and American countries the housing price to income than the average for 3 to 5 times, developing countries on the high side, 7-9 times is very common.According to our estimates, 2010 national house prices than income at 7.8 times, does not seem to be unusual, but part of a line and east second city at 14 times or so, eliminate economy applicable room factors, of about 20 times higher. So, to achieve the developed countries, still have a long way to go, this is mainly about and the level of economic development. More practical significance, the next year or two the reasonable degree of falling house prices, if you have to give a general standard, I personally think domestic house prices fell 10%-15% overall, a city and part of the second city overall fell 20% to 30%. Need special emphasis is, most of the person that buy a house here in a certain time period refers in the price can be effective, such as some point next year, can buy homes price, compared with earlier this year "kingdom of article 8" by new level of house prices. In accordance with the statistics department if data, it is not possible so the integrity of the big decline. For instance, the round the housing adjustment, in 2008 the new commodity house the price,cheap oakley sunglasses only 2007 years than fell 1.7%; In march of 2009, the national 70 large and medium-sized cities in house prices index fell 1.3% year-on-year. In addition to fell by, and the duration of the falling house prices. 1991 years later Japan prices have fallen more than ten years, 1997 years later Hong Kong prices have fallen in 67, 2006 years American house prices fell four or five years. If this domestic prices also even fell four or five years, it is a "terrorist event". China's economic growth, urbanization rate, population structure, housing stock, and many other fundamental factors, don't support this incident, control policy wouldn't be so "extreme". In August 2008 to February 2009, over 70 cities in the last round house prices fall even 6 months, the dip time estimation can much longer, but more than a year and the possibility of a small. If so, estimated late next year, house prices are likely to appear weak turnaround. For want of the person that buy a house, next year or buying a good time.
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