2012 will be the most uncomfortable in a macro policy to have a surprise

"If 2011 is one of the most not sure, then 2012, it will be the most difficult part of the year." 3 days afternoon, wide hair negotiable bank in the 2012 wealth BBS held, prominent economists XuXiaoNian points out, caused by global economic imbalances this round of economic crisis, one day does not correct, economic recovery, it is hard to see hope. "A little a bit optimistic, now Europe's 'patients' start willing to take medicine, but this is just step. This year it is difficult to see Europe and the United States economy rallies." He think that China's economic growth this year is not optimistic,new era hats wholesale and the macro policy aspect to have a "surprise", but if you do it "reform and opening up", the future growth potential is still huge. China should not be "lend Europe a dime" why say this year will be the most uncomfortable a year? XuXiaoNian say, because the economic problems that don't know where is the crux, know they are not willing to take the medicine, the us and Europe would not eat, China also don't want to eat. May now starting to change, so also hope. "Chinese should not lend money to Europe, want to borrow some money penny. They need to understand that no borrowing money is not a way of life, economic development must rely on the development of the real economy, rather than borrowing money for a little bit. But I now gao fuli optimistic." XuXiaoNian says, the past two weeks from Europe gratifying signal, the greeks finally accepted the harsh conditions attached to the emergency plan; 25 European countries through the legislation form provisions eu governments debt ceiling, inhibit impulse, government spending. "This suggests that the patient began to willing to take medicine. But this is only taken the first step, how is the effect remains to be seen." He predicts that future 2-3 years all could not see Europe of strong economic rebound, to rally is also the early in Europe, but the United States when real recovery will see the American family debt cut when in position. Fiscal and monetary policy to have a "surprise" "external environment so, this year's economic growth of China situation is not optimistic, and the inevitable will appear from falling further." XuXiaoNian believe that all parties should not expect too much of the policy level, because I like the before the "four trillion" that stimulus policy very unlikely, reason is that financial especially local finance have no money. And this year on monetary policy will not have to change direction. "Don't expect the central bank will be large, reason is that inflation water. Now the actual inflation than published digital to serious water, once inflation will be back, once out of the cage. The tiger, want again to close, it is very difficult to go back to the". He concludes that this year in fiscal and monetary policies, due to too much restriction, and it's hard to have a surprising, even launch economic stimulus policy, to the real economy will not be affected, the reason is currently restricted economic development is not the capital entity, but lack of investment opportunities. "Even the infrastructure construction investment is surplus, even if money and can shoot where to go?" China's economic growth potential is still big but, XuXiaoNian also said: "overall, China's growth potential is very big still, but it depends on the policy guidance of the next two years." He said, the future of the potential for growth will focus on the urbanization and service the two "potential point". "If the urbanization development,wholesale nfl jerseys really into will bring a lot of demand." But he points out that all this should be set up on the foundation of "the price down" basis, to make house prices come down, not on the limit to buy, be restricted to borrow, but to reform land system, the household registration system, etc. Another "potential point" service industry, the point is that the development is open, the government should be terminated the excessive regulation. "And to break the monopoly, promote competition". "The two years is a key point in the future." XuXiaoNian said, as long as really back to "reform" and "open" the two most basic policy focus, China's economy is still a potential can be released, even in the next 10 years to 7%-8% of the high speed to be growth.

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