2012 deposit rate cut prices must three times will drop

In the foreign institutions opinion, although the European debt drag down China's economic development, but in China under the effect of macroeconomic regulation and control to realize "soft landing". At the same time, by the transformation of the economic impact of the housing market, both fell in 2012, the stock market would go after this? Policy: save the accuracy at least three times to cut full year 2011 and the fourth quarter GDP data showed that China's economy has slowed down, but higher than market expectations. Foreign institutions in this, it seems, is the result of the transformation of the economic structure of China, the decline of health range still sliding speed. Many foreign institutions forecast, in 2012 China's economic growth at around 8.5%, among them the debt crisis caused by foreign demand continues to spread across the slowdown in China's economy is still the biggest uncertainty. Ubs, managing director and chief China economist WangTao said, in 2012 China economy downward pressure on the main from exports.polarized sunglasses The state of the economy is weak in the world, China's annual export growth may be zero or single-digit growth, net exports to GDP growth will be negative contribution. This year China's regulation will no doubt focus from control inflation to steady growth, continue to cut the deposit reserve rate has already become the consensus. HSBC chief economist in the greater China region QuHongBin expected, China's future six months at least three times the deposit reserve rate cut; Years if the CPI to below 3%, may have a chance to cut interest rates; New credit facility with 7.5 trillion yuan last year rose from 8 trillion yuan to 8.5 trillion yuan. House prices: a reasonable return, there are still cut space 2011 market regulation is powerfully also been market focus. The currency of the person that buy a house to wait, it is still difficult to hold back into is, look at the property market has a turn in the price is still looking forward to continue to callback; And to already bought one, and 100000, 200000 yuan to the moment of the evaporation of heartburn. Bureau of statistics data shows, the whole year the national investment in real estate development 6.174 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.9% in the name, than in the previous three quarters of a drop of 4.1% growth, a drop of 5.3% more than the previous year. Among them, the national commodity house sales reached 5.9119 trillion yuan, up 12.1%, than in the previous three quarters of a drop of 11.1% growth, a drop of 6.8% more than the previous year. Foreign institutions generally think that the future real estate policies will turn out to be double track, this may have large commodity house restrictions, but to protect the larger rooms have support. So for house prices go up again for the space is not large, but because China itself the lever of the real estate is small, so don't worry about the risk of collapse. "Despite control policy constraints, real estate market appears certain scope, but affordable housing downturn of steady progress can resist commodity house of the construction of the commencement and decline." WangTao explanation says, and this year will be the new start of 7 million security room, last year 10 million set of a third to be built, if these in focus this year forward, real estate under construction is expected to increase 40% to 50% area. And from the micro level, the HSBC China is a line of city house prices could have 20% to 30% lower space, two, three line city adjustment range between 10% to 15% in only. Citigroup are of the opinion that this year one, two, three line cities and 10%-20% of the fixed space. The stock market: it is difficult to foster big bull market for are experiencing the economic transformation, and in the process of the long-term agent for the A share market in 2012, and how will present the market? Citigroup wealth management department assistant director QiuSi nephews reappeared unharmed think that, in the process of economic transformation of the stock market is hard to foster big bull market. Citigroup this year is expected to A share market fluctuations in the interval is given priority to, concussion rate in 2400-2800 between points.baseball hats And in this year is more stable monetary policy, fiscal policy more positive under the background of the GDP pull function not ruled out onto the high stock index to 3000 points. QuHongBin points out that, since the credit scale, with the emergence of inflection point, whether it will have the fundamentals or liquidity significantly improved, plus stock valuations are attractive, social security fund and local annuities long-term capital entering the market, is expected to have A share at least more than 20% of the rise in space. To this, ubs securities chief strategy ChenLi analysts think, according to the historical experience, profit inflection point and the price often simultaneous happening inflection point, is expected in the second quarter of 2012 is A shares non-financial enterprises low gross margin, years is profit inflection point, the second half of may have A significant recovery.

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