China needs: landing or pick up

In September, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index in the National Day holiday period announced, beautiful beautiful index has not yet had time to inspire Chinese investors, but to create excitement and onlookers fantasy space, European and American mainstream economic class media are in a prominent position article published in the good news from China, the s&p 500 index, nearly all appear on crude oil futures prices rise, the us dollar $hit a record high, copper futures price before the financial crisis of the high was near. Foreign investors are looking forward to the Chinese demand like 2009 again pull all the same, however, it may be happy too early, Chinese 3 quarter manufacturing activity picks up may be benefited from the recovery of the economy, not the Chinese domestic demand picks up. Although China's manufacturing industry in September purchasing managers' index is August was 2.1% rise sharply,sunglasses shop but after seasonal adjustment, only slightly, growth, season after the manufacturing production index nearly unchanged in QianYue, whole new orders index also showed no change. The only bright spot is the new export orders index in the season came after a modest picks up, and this is the third consecutive months of back up. This shows that September's industrial production really appeared to rebound, but basically at this time of year can be explained by seasonal factors, does not support the result of the resilience of the judgment. Use the PMI data can also be quarter the same conclusions, namely industrial production growth trend continue to slow, but slow rate has dropped significantly, and signs of stabilising, and new order new export orders with significant rebound, but both of the difference of index on behalf of domestic demand will not be significant rebound, it is only a stabilising just. This means that China imported mainly is back in the third quarter with export picks up, is now generated import picks up, domestic demand and no substantial bounced significantly, short-term inside China's industry growth will be of significant influence on foreign demand. In September, China's export container freight index has rally to financial crisis happened before the high level, and coastal dry bulk freight index but has since 2 quarter in low shocks, it also showed that the current is leading the Chinese current manufacturing economy back. Foreign demand can be sustained progress? According to Markit investigation, global manufacturing export growth in September continue to fall, the global new export orders index also continued seven months since the falling of foreign is very sensitive to the Taiwan new export orders index in September has dropped back to under 50, China foreign demand growth leads to the possibility is not big. Maybe we can see the value added of industry in September year-on-year rate of increase and August flat even slightly tall, and China's current manufacturing finished goods inventory is quite low, and September manufacturing enterprise raw material purchase quantity in a situation, the preliminary judgment China manufacturing activity can be warmed may continue for 1 to 2 months, but whether can continue to rise to see whether the final demand to trend picking up, inventory adjustment is not the driving force of economic growth. And since July of global trade growth tends to decline, and China's commercial Banks are facing more generally strong capital constraints, this will cause China to continue to rise to have a inside and outside of the performance. China needs can only be called has temporarily to a soft landing, but rebounded is far from appear. Even though the us long-term Treasury yields in 11 during holiday greatly decreased, but to China's recent economic data, and published by the international commodity price trend in China is not beneficial to the bond market, institutional investors configuration pressure decreased significantly, the direction of economic policy will be next year in the fourth quarter of decided to leave, that has made the risk of holding bonds has more than short-term earnings,New Era Hats the trade structure of the end of the profits realized dynamic is stronger. Bond markets in economic growth and inflation not decline further to perform better before, China's recent bond market more likely interval the volatility of the situation. The current U.S. inflation down, and China's rising inflation, which caused the China external liquidity loose, internal liquidity is tight situation. This makes the money into the home, once inflation slowed and the boj reduce open market hedge dynamics, the inter-bank market the funds will come again situation bounteous, the only money market of short-term interest rates fall further to drive the yield curve downside, flattening "yield curve of the benefits of has almost run out. Years the possibility of low interest rates still, even if one and a half times higher interest rates also difficult to reverse the trend of the bond market, bond market really afraid is loose credit policy and economic growth at the back. Therefore, the bond market for China: short term should not be optimistic blindly, middle period should not be too pessimistic.

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