Three, five years ago, the house to buy a house not children blow is disastrous about the rich in China of the difference of the personal reasons nine (and talks this week the stock market) fudan university financial and capital market research center director xie 103 professor (a) 2001 on real estate market prices have risen sharply, panic cities of China's real estate in the 1993-2000 period is in be adjusted, in the process of fall, standing vice prime minister zhu rongji as governor of the people's bank of China in person, the goal down "the stock market heat," "development zone heat," "real estate hot". But since 2001, governments around the world begin to pay close attention to the influence of great market, try to, to provide various kinds of preferential policies, such as Shanghai house buyers to provide blue Indian registered permanent residence, let the "new from Shanghai" children with blue Indian college registered permanent residence, admit a mark from 100 points lower than students. In addition, buy in the room of the Shanghai person, can also is the personal income tax payments (that is, omissible if the individual income tax). ...... Since 2001, Shanghai real estate market begins to start, heating up, next to fudan university of new housing for 5000 yuan a square meters, homeowners more and teachers, the neighbors, friends met, asked the talk in the most is to: "buy a house? Quick buy!" "Every day going up, and up!" From 4000 yuan/m2 to 5000 yuan/m2 rose, and in just a few months. Who doesn't know it will rise to how much, it's how much room to rise, panic, the heart floating. A group of things people even broke into the fudan university new student dormitory, to snap up, the security guard repeated work, just walk out. Once I want to buy a set of cosco community 60 m2 eve, as a study, to house property intermediary company, but seven people gaze at the room, intermediary two see miss me is fudan professor, very want to sell me, remember is 280000 dollars, they make me at 2:30 in the afternoon to pay a deposit, I turned along while, find it below is a great flow of the road and so on; At 2:30 in the afternoon to tell them not to buy, the results seven people all piled in, they rob to make deposit, an old man side to squeeze side daughter call, that grab room crazy scene, I'm very impressed. Since 2001, the cities of China real estate have risen sharply, results show 2001 rob the room, especially through the bank mortgage of the room rob is right, they avoided in the new round of the polarization between the rich and the dilemma of fall into. (2) cities of China real estate rose 10 years, has an irresistible causes a lot of real estate rose too quickly, to heart. In fact, it costs are a variety of reasons,baseball sunglasses there are a lot of reasons is irresistible, realize it, and at that time rob buy a suite, (like the TV series "humble abode" that way) is very necessary. These irresistible reasons are: (1) the United States on September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in New York, marked the inevitable to launch a revenge war, will play the taliban, (or even harmful to Iraq); An American war, will be printing a lot of dollars, a very loose monetary policy. Dollars more, to China and other emerging countries will flow, China's yuan to appreciate, interest rates and the United States more than 10 times, such foreign exchange will be a $into China, China's foreign exchange the gap will increase sharply, the domestic had to multiple currency. So, gold, oil and cities of China real estate will attract large currency and rising sharply. (2) real estate of China's economy is indeed pillar industry, an industry association and direct, indirect influence 42 industry, steel, copper, aluminum influence, cement, lime, glass, furniture...... One day, the businesses. The local government to develop the economy, the GDP make up, the will to caress, real estate development, and only in the rising momentum, the industry to big development. (3) Chinese college students graduated a year more than 600, refused to leave all large and medium-sized cities, equal to the 3 million families, need to 3 million houses. (4) 3 million-500 migrant workers each year WanJinCheng, come in, they stay in the dynamic, (have into the overall is, is more than a little, into), to 100 years to finish into. They can't afford to buy an apartment to rent, rent is deferred payment to buy. All these constitute the basic need. (5) the local finance need to sell their land to maintain. In 2010, Beijing, Shanghai, tianjin owner of income, account for the three places where financial above 60%. This is the "land finance". The local government's secret vault, bag, they are encouraged real estate rise, and be afraid of falling, a fall, can not sell off land. The local finance is limited to the verge of bankruptcy. Now, each district has borrowed 10.7 trillion,, is very difficult. 6 in various factors of internal and external trapped, China's currency M2 more more more, have a plenty of active multiple, have a plenty of helpless multiple. In 2000, China's M2 for 11.8 trillion, and it is 1.38 times GDP ratio. And in 2011, and up to 80 trillion M2, it and the proportion of GDP is 1.9 times. (and the United States this data is only 0.65 times). When a lot of money, money focus on arrival, it would not necessarily lead to overall inflation, and will focus on some place, industry and into the product, that is, these places, industrial demand exceeds supply, and may not regenerate. It is gold, oil, antique, classical Chinese poetry painting and large and medium cities of real estate. The centralized fund inflow, th YeDa rise, can't suppress. (3) the current real estate regulation is a severe, abnormal market behavior of the phenomenon since 2011, the regulation of Chinese cities made the obvious effect, the Spring Festival in 2012, the capital, Beijing, seven days appeared zero clinch a deal, Shanghai volume also fell sharply, new home prices also have around the fall of 20%. But this fall, volume is very severe atrophy in regulatory happens, can say is ancient and modern, Chinese and foreign, that never happened. Beijing limit to buy in five years, control tax to buy proof, Shanghai, chongqing to want to pay property taxes, more than 70 major cities in China are limited to buy. Therefore, at present the real estate downturn is extremely strict national occurred under the measures.And, because the real estate downturn caused side effects, the effect of the macro economy continues, happen in. (4) three, five years ago not to buy a house, sell the room, the damage to the child is disastrous cities of China real estate rallied and to make China's widening. Many in the 2001-2004 bought house of people (especially with bank loan, a mortgage, buy a house), now the house is rising in multiplied; Fudan university 5000 / m2 near up to 3-35000 / m2. A 7 times. (and M2 growth of exactly the same). Their wealth virtually increased 6-7 times. Among them, have a fudan university of girl (Shanghai), 2001, mom and dad said, "we can only give you 500000 do, you go to operation dowry. The girls on macro economic and Shanghai real estate market for some investigation, with $500000 in bank mortgage (at the time, down as long as 20%), suddenly bought 5 suites, (each suite prices is 500000). We are very worry about her, one thousand house price fluctuations, fall, her interest, actual price to pay out? She smiled and said: "teacher, you speak so many reasons, I feel, rising house prices will go up." 10 years, her five sets of houses have gone up to 2.5 million-3 million. In her house, going to 600000, sell a set, paid off all bank loans, four other house is white got. She became a standard rich elder sister. Another man, but in rising house prices in front, always be real price, score1, dare not to buy a house. A writer, from hubei, to Beijing; Constantly deposit, save by 1 million, house prices rose to 1.5 million; Save to the 1.5 million, house prices rose to 2.5 million, he wrote a paper to bemoan home prices to surge, how did he try very hard to write articles also miss house prices, the write post earn money, are submerged in house prices rise in, white dry for many years. What is more, the mother of a girl fudan, many Chinese class, she heard that the central in regulating the real estate, even in three years ago, will only two suites (a was married to her daughter, the female is top fudan mathematics), sell a. Results sold rose, she regretted died. Many times to phone and I speak: "regret died, sad dead." Now add 1 million all buy don't come back. Is particularly regret and sad is that some people are not listen to advice, in four years ago to sell the firm room, has become a lifelong regret. A relative, four years to come to text message, said that hangzhou, the government gave them a set of DongQianFang index, let I to go to hangzhou see, give an idea. I hurried to go over the weekend, a see, very good. A set of 900000, a set of 1.38 million; Two sets of choose one. I personally by bike, to the beauty of the west lake in only 10 minutes, and the west lake, is the most beautiful place in China ah, I begin in elementary school, often live xihe lane street to the orioles singing, the lake to play. I confirm that the house prices rose inevitable here. Advise the relatives and his wife, determined to buy it. They have only 800000 yuan, I said we can gather together to you. He "are poor but proud", resolute don't. Have sell meaning. I'm really afraid, that evening the hangzhou a bank please vice President (my MBA students), his young wife is a famous real estate developers of hangzhou miss sales, they shout, please I and relatives family dinner, at the west lake hotel spent more than 2000 yuan, from the evening to 10:30 at 6:30, have been advised them to buy a house, must buy down, this area is too good, will rallied and not enough money, they can lend their bank. They nodded, and do not buy no, undecided. I put his wife aside quietly, said: "you have to be to buy this house, size all can,wholesale sunglasses this is your home the last piece of gold. The last piece of gold ingot! It will go up!" She faltered out her hesitated, but obviously want to sell. A week later, relative to a letter, he will be in 1.58 million after buying big room and sold, earned 200000, he said: "he's a monthly salary of 3000 yuan only, can take many years to earn this 200000! Ask you a borrowed, owe more!" I extremely gas, let he immediately also buy a come back, and a few years later will rise, agree duty by me out. He simply shut down, not letter. ...... Four years later, the west lake rose nearly the room of about 2 million. They dare not after cycling here from husband and wife, said often after heart like a knife as painful. Now, their children 26 years old, fall in love to buy a house that, but 1 million how to buy a house in big cities? This disparity between the big distance open. Alas, some things, is predictable. The macro economy is predictable, microeconomic are unpredictable, clearly the foreseeable, why not listen to advice? The stock market is in the rebound this week, people are looking forward to the pension market, pensions as early as possible into the stock market is certainly a more, but the national pension balance is 1.92 trillion, to our knowledge, only 30% of the real city, and it is also are very strict, entering the market is also more than 5000, and deep Shanghai stock market value of the two has reached 20 trillion. In addition to remind everybody, the pension is BaoMingQian, many Chinese cities have already entered the aging city, pension is not the loss can earn, is to value of appreciation. This is not to save the city, even if the rules they march in April to enter the market, they are not listed, they will choose a low, this is a commercial secret, not go down in high to buy stock. When
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