2012年3月16日星期五

Why do investors ready to be the United States, Germany exploitation?

Nearly two years international bond market interest rates and yields, faithful expression the poor poorer and the rich richer theory. This is called the Matthew effect, "for whoever has, it shall be given to him, that he will have an abundance. Whoever does not have, even all of his, also will be taken away", in the middle of the western culture has been. German long-term accumulated financial credit, the financial credit at a critical moment, help the German people, even in the euro area a lot. The debt crisis is still in fermentation, Germany's economy in 2011 in the fourth quarter atrophy. According to the German federal bureau of statistics, the fourth quarter of 2011 German economy since the financial crisis for the first time since atrophy, year 2011 economic growth to 3.0%, mainly from domestic demand increases,discount sunglasses private consumption season strong growth in investment, is the fourth quarter fell by 0.25%. The German central bank forecast 2012 Germany can still achieve 0.6% of GDP growth, but deutsche bank think the German economy will stalled. Economic expectations are not optimistic, but the brave amid the national debt. On January 9, 2012, the German finance ministry for the first time in 2012 national debt auction, successfully auction 3.9 billion euros ($) in six months national debt, average yield with type national debt issued by the last of 0.0005% to-0.0122%, for the country's national debt first negative average return on auction. Lend German money, but also DaoTie interest rates, it seems, investors think, lend money to Germany than money in the bank is strong. Time pour push for more than a month, last November 23, the German national debt auctions overnight become since the advent of the euro is Germany's most successful in time, sell only a 3.644 billion euro, German central bank reserves for 2.356 billion euros bonds, included in the German central bank held national debt, subscribe rate 1.1 times; Not plan, subscribe rate is 0.65 times. From 2008 to November 2011, Germany every five national debt auction is 1 subscribe insufficient. In 2012 the situation reversal Europe debt crisis more severe situation, investors frantically running to the arms of German bonds for security. And last month, the Netherlands has issued three months for bonds supportive to January 12,, the Netherlands two 10-year Treasury yield of just 0.197%. As the euro zone finance is reliable two countries, in the important moments show the value of the credit, national debt interest rate is negative is the best proof. According to January 11, 2012, the German federal bureau of data shows, the German deficit fell sharply, to 1%, for the first time in three years lower than the European Union nearly 3% of the set warn online, inflation remain at 2% level. The central bank credit, abide by the state financial discipline can be at a critical moment in low-interest issue bonds and get the credit spread. Surprising is that recent auction of Italy, Spain national debt interest rates all down, the euro zone's commercial Banks bought in strength high these bonds, because the European central bank in the commercial Banks as the last behind the borrower, quantification loose monetary policy let these bank strong backing, not afraid to default, seek higher bond arbitrage opportunities, the move was pull the chestnut out of fire. German national debt investors willing to be exploited, the us Treasury investors in mind unwilling to love, it was hijacked by fear, to enter the United States Treasury bond market. The United States also appear supportive bonds, on October 25, 2010, the Treasury issued about $10 billion total to five-year Treasury inflation hedges, the return of 0.55%, is the United States Treasury since the 1997 launch such national debt since, yields in the auction for the first time when appear a negative value. After this negative interest rates becomes the norm, the Beijing time on January 12, 2012 ten at night, 10-year inflation-protected add bond yields 0.159%, five-year return of 0.815%, 30 10-year yield of 0.689%. The value of the bonds and to contribute to the inflation index hook, the loan according to inflation adjusted regularly coefficient, TIPS will ensure in inflation occurs, the fall in the value of the bonds don't happen the principal, interest payments after the adjustment calculation according to the principal. The United States issue bonds to the bottom line: on the one hand through the quantification loose or distorted operation to release money, will long-term interest rates at zero suppression level; On the other hand release monetary push the high economic growth, and increased employment, but have not push up inflation. And the fed purchases the profit-making low assets, 2011 in and $76.9 billion in 2010, the federal reserve hit a historical high net earnings of $79.3 billion, 2009 in and $47.4 billion. Recent securities industry and by the American association of financial market economic adviser roundtable released forecast inflation data, said in 2011, the U.S. economic growth material is 1.8%, lower than the prior estimate of 2.5% growth. San Francisco the fed chairman Williams and Cleveland the fed chairman's PiNaEr all said, expected slowdown in the inflation rate during the first half of the year will be lower than 2%, this let believed strongly in the currency of the release the doves in advance into the carnival state. To advocate a loose monetary policy in early January krugman for the New York times wrote in a column, encourage the United States continue to borrowing money, for one thing, the government and household debt is different, "the family should pay its debts,nfl jerseys cheap but government is not". So they need to do is make sure the debt rising faster than its tax base is slow. Foreigners now hold huge America's debt, including a number of government debt. Foreigners often in the United States security, low investment returns of assets, the United States actually from its overseas assets earn income is far more than the amount paid to foreign investors. If you imagine a country has to China in debt, then you must have been misled. We are not in the direction of the rapid progress. This words say it any more clearly, but through made of thorns stick, let the global investors panic, they will quietly accept socan lend cheap even Treasury, just because, the us Treasury bonds than other safety.This is the strength of the exploitation under threats. Investors ready by German exploitation for Germany, the reputation of low inflation is still in, investors by the United States to exploitation, because investors fear of the United States. Including the main market participants, from the king of bonds grouse, to China's foreign exchange trading department.

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