2012年3月5日星期一

Paul krugman: U.S. debt burden is just a fantasy

And in 2010, in 2011 the United States economy is experiencing technical recovery period, but still continue suffering from high unemployment catastrophic blow. And in 2010, the 2011 most of the time, almost all of the dialogue in Washington are talking about another topic: that is to reduce the budget deficit of urgency. The focus of this put the cart before the horse, to a great extent reflects our current political culture, especially that the congress is how to break away from the people that had everything. At the same time, when people talk about the deficit and the Washington debts, most of the time, they don't know what they were talking about, and said the most people actually understand the least. Perhaps the most obvious is that congress has been dependent on so-called economic experts, they more than once completely to mistake the budget deficit short term. Since President Obama took office,discount sunglasses the preference for economic analysis from the traditional foundation of people have been waiting for soaring budget deficit that interest rates. Now every day so! Although they have been waiting for, but those interest rates have been reduced to the lowest point in history. You may think that these facts will make those politicians questioned their choice of experts. Or you may think so, if they don't know any of our condition, how to calculate understanding of politics. But Washington is not only for the short-term situation confused, but also to the long-term situation feel confused. Although debt could be a problem, but our politicians and scholars know debt way but all wrong, also exaggerating the extent of the problem. Concerns about the deficit man as to such a future, when we needed to borrow, we will become nothing. They think that the United States is like a big family, he took out too much mortgage, once the economic situation is not good, pay by installments also becomes difficult. However, at least from the two ways, this view is a more bad analogy. First, the family should pay its debts, but government is not. So they need to do is make sure the debt rising faster than its tax base is slow. In fact, during the second world war, didn't repay debt, as the us economy growth and the increase of the amount of taxable, it just becomes more and more irrelevant. Second, that almost no one thought, an excess of the family owe lending is other people's money, but to a great extent, America's debt essence is you owe money of their own. Debt help win the second world war, this statement is true. At that time the taxpayer bedding bag into the debt trap, debt accounted for the percentage of their gross domestic product also is far higher than today; But these debts actually also the taxpayer has, as all the people buy savings bonds. Therefore, debt and not make postwar American more poor. Especially the debt and can't stop postwar generation in American history experience income and living standard of the largest ascension. But what's different this time? In fact and not you want to that different. That's right, foreigners now hold huge America's debt, including a number of government debt. But every dollar of foreigners buy American debt, have 89 cents is we buy foreign debt. Foreigners often in the United States security, low investment returns of assets, the United States actually from its overseas assets earn income is far more than the amount paid to foreign investors. If you imagine a country has to China in debt, then you must have been misled. We are not in the direction of the rapid progress. However, the federal debt and the future of the mortgage the fact that different does not mean that debt is harmless. Must pay interest on taxes, don't need to be the right wing theorists, we also recognize that if not from the production activities to tax avoidance tax evasion intercourse resources transfer, taxes will put some cost to the economy. But these costs far less than the liabilities of the family before the described as serious. This is why country needs a stable and responsible government. History shows that, when conditions permit, if the government would exert appropriate high taxes, it can be even higher levels of debt in existence, it is far better than today's conventional thinking that you believe that much. Especially in England, in the past 170 years of history, there are 81 years its debt is more than 100% of GDP. When John Maynard Keynes wrote the necessity of consumption, to break out of the great depression, Britain has today than any developed countries (excluding Japan) higher debt. Of course, in a sense, because the United States has a crazy the domestic tax conservative movement,new era hats there may not be such a responsible government. But error is not in our debt, but on our own. That's right, debt problem is very important. But now, the other thing is more important. What we need is increased rather than decreased the government spending to get rid of the current unemployment trouble. However, for the debt problem of ignorance and judging mistakes are still in the way of the stops you.

see more:HSBC: emerging markets inflation pressure drop economic expansion, lack of power
Mark PuDiao drop 9 countries in the European Union rating the debt crisis to upgrade

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